Nifty may log 17% gains in Lok Sabha election year; levels of 24,000 likely in 2024 – Times of India

Nifty may log 17% gains in Lok Sabha election year; levels of 24,000 likely in 2024 - Times of India

Nifty50 Rally Outlook 2024: Historically, elections in the world’s largest democracy have had significant economic weight and India’s capital market is not immune to them. Experts say that regardless of the election results NiftyA benchmark index, will touch the 23,000-24,000 range by the end of 2024. Factors such as global events, geopolitical tensions, inflation, and interest rates are unlikely to affect the overall direction of the market.
According to a report by ET, analysts have looked at historical data from the past four decades during election years to gain insights. They expect the benchmark index to deliver around 17% returns in 2024. This year alone, the Nifty has already seen a rally of 18%.
Looking back, according to ICICI Securities, equity returns during general election years have been positive in 9 out of 11 instances, with an average return of 17%. For example, in 2019, the Nifty gained around 14.3%, while in 2014, it gained 30%. A significant increase of 81% in 2009 was a rebound from a sharp decline of 52% in 2008, which was mobilized globally. economic crisis. In 1998 and 2004, Nifty recorded gains of 63% and 13% respectively.
Analysts note that Indian equity markets exhibit certain characteristics during election years. Calendar year 2024, being the year of union elections, will have a significant impact on sentiment in equity markets, said Dharmesh Shah, head of technical at ICICI Securities. Shah said that it has been observed that the benchmark index has performed well in election years despite the increase in volatility, so volatility should be used during election years. As a shopping opportunity.
Look at the last four election years from 2004 till now. Indian Equity Nifty has consistently provided positive returns with minimum gains of 11% and an average of 22%.

The banking, financial services, and insurance sector, the main players in the market, posted double-digit returns in three of the four election years. Moreover, sectors like auto, power, construction and infrastructure have seen significant growth in at least three election cycles. Defensive sectors like consumption, pharma, and IT have shown consistent performance over the last four election years.

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