Iran’s attack on Israel sparks race to avert a full-blown war – Times of India

Iran’s attack on Israel sparks race to avert a full-blown war - Times of India

A huge salvo of missiles and drones was launched from the barren plains of K. Iran by the Isra Yale It was kind of direct The conflict between Middle East Powers that the world feared would mark the outbreak of a full-blown regional war.
But behind the unique nature of attack There was a dance of diplomatic gestures that allowed both sides to claim success, and risked a wider conflict without ensuring it.
The Israeli military said 99 percent of the barrage was shot down and no Israelis were killed, hinting at Iran’s coming days. Tehran said it had made its point, and sought to stop the march toward a wider volcano. Supporters of Israel in the United States and Europe were also pressing Sunday to avoid further increases in blackouts.
For all the moves toward the brink since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, the Jewish state and its enemies have been able to hold back the border even as violence has spread to other Middle Eastern countries.
What changed over the weekend, according to people familiar with the talks, is that the latest U.S.-led diplomatic efforts — so far focused on de-escalating the Gaza crisis — are being targeted to To ensure that any response from Israel is measured.
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that although the attack was deadly and devastating, Washington is urging Israel to Retaliatory action. The concern, though, is that logic may not prevail, according to a person familiar with the debate. Indeed, a wild card is pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from hardliners in his government, although success in defeating an Iranian attack could strengthen his hand.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said the attack by Iran was “very accurate” in limiting damage. Still, he said, “we are closer than ever to a broader regional war.”
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Iran’s latest attack was a dramatic escalation, the first direct attack by the hardline regime after decades of relying on proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah to wage a shadow war with its main regional rival.
It demonstrated with a massive barrage that it was ready to challenge Israel’s supreme military chief, something no other power had dared to do for decades. The US moved ships and aircraft into position and vowed to help protect Israel. Britain and Jordan were also involved.
Oil markets steadied on Monday after Israel repelled the attack, but the prospect of $100 a barrel is once again on the horizon, with Bloomberg Economics forecasting that Israel and Iran A direct war between would push the world economy into recession.
But Iran, seeking to avoid an escalating conflict with Israel’s superior military, preceded the operation with several days of public and private warnings. Its officials described their intention to retaliate to countries in the region, according to a person with knowledge of the briefing, a move that indirectly conveyed that message to the United States. US officials said there was no direct warning to the US.
Although damage was limited, Iranian officials described the operation as a successful response to an April 1 attack on a diplomatic compound in Damascus that killed several Iranian military commanders. Iran blamed Israel for the attack, which the government did not claim responsibility for.
On Sunday, Israel was also celebrating defeating the attack, which was able to shoot down missiles and again demonstrate the country’s military prowess in protecting its own citizens after criticism following a Hamas attack six months ago. .
For Netanyahu, it is also a new show of support from the US and its allies after months of public criticism of Israel’s deadly military operation in Gaza, including by President Joe Biden. Congressional leaders are planning a long-delayed vote on additional aid for this week.
U.S. officials, who had warned in the days before the attack that the situation was “extremely dangerous,” said defense forces had acted and the damage was limited. He publicly and privately called on Israel to resist the urge to retaliate against Iran, or at least to limit any response to avoid further raising the stakes.
According to US officials, Israel made it clear to the US on Sunday that it does not want any significant escalation with Iran. They are trying to protect themselves and defend themselves, an official said.
“Remember, these are two parties that have a very long history with each other,” said Michael Singh, a former senior White House official who is now managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Neither would want to see it erupt into an all-out war. Does that mean there can’t be miscalculations? Absolutely not.”
Calls in Israel for another round of retaliation, this time directly against Iran, added to the fear. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called for a “crushing attack”. Although Netanyahu did not endorse the appeal, Israel’s war is far from over.
Not many in Israel are clamoring for an immediate flex of muscle, one reason the Iranian attack was so unsuccessful. Meanwhile, it has diverted global attention from the brutal war in Gaza.
According to Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, some 33,000 Palestinians have already been killed in the conflict. More than 100 hostages have yet to be freed and thousands of fighters from the militant group are still holed up in Rafah, a Gaza city where millions of refugees have taken refuge.
According to Israel’s foreign intelligence agency Mossad, Hamas rejected the latest ceasefire proposal by mediators after the Iranian attack.
Israeli forces are planning an assault on Rafah, while violence continues along Israel’s northern border, where fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced tens of thousands of civilians from both sides.
For the moment, the weekend attack appears to signal that deterrence is still in place to prevent Iran from escalating into full-scale war with Israel.
Iran is trying to draw a “new line,” according to Dana Stroll, who until December was the Pentagon’s deputy assistant secretary for the Middle East.
“If Israel targets any of its personnel abroad, even when those personnel are engaged in terrorist activities, Iran will respond with attacks like we saw last night,” he said. Israeli leaders “will need to respond,” he said, but in a way that would “avoid opening a new escalation cycle that points to a full-scale regional war.”
Last week, even as Tehran was publicly threatening massive retaliation, it was telling Gulf Arab states to anticipate the response and withdraw from their territory. He said the Houthis, Iran’s proxies in Yemen that have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, would have a limited role.
A diplomat in the region said Tehran appeared to be discussing its intention to retaliate with nearby countries to show restraint in the face of public shock and aimed at killing its commanders at the embassy compound in Syria. to be provided after, who is formally eligible to be Iranian. Gulf states, eager to avoid a wider war, stressed the importance of caution.
Israel combined Iran’s public threats with warnings of its own, backed by public pledges of support from its allies.
On Friday, as officials said an attack was imminent, the United States dispatched a top military commander to Israel to help coordinate the response. American and British aircraft and warships helped shoot down some of the drones.
A Western diplomat said that while potentially devastating, the attack was designed more to show resolve than to overwhelm Israel’s defenses.
Still, officials in the region said they expected some kind of response from Israel given the unusual nature of a direct attack by Iran. How severe it is will show whether the march to the brink of wider conflict is actually halted.
Mark Keynesian, a defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the lack of damage and casualties meant the Israelis could limit their strike. “Maybe they hit a military base that launched missiles, maybe a production factory, maybe Iranian naval assets.” “Everyone is watching what the Israelis will do.”

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